You Cannot Afford To Wait To Prepare for Family
Male unplanned childlessness is a huge issue, but people (i.e., probably you) often don’t translate that a societal problem is likely a problem for you. If something is a societal problem, it is because it affects many people.
I recently came across an article highlighting the plight of men experiencing unplanned childlessness. There are many men who, despite a desire to have children, do not realise this goal. I wrote this note by way of reply:
I love the highlighting of this issue here. Many men do want children and put effort into getting themselves in a position to be able to have them.
There is also an additional problem that I see in men who say they want a family but put little effort into doing the things that would lead to them being in committed relationships and/or that would put them in a position to have children.
Seems some of them don’t care as much as they say - but many do and just don’t feel the urgency. Yet men do have a biological clock, with fertility in decline from ~40yo and the fact that, although age gaps [in relationships] are prevalent, the vast majority are only a few years… leaving men with a) their own biological clock and b) only lagged by <5yrs from women’s biological clock [in expectation].
Both men and women also often forget to adjust for the run up period. If you’re a guy with a deadline of 40 but also want to know someone for two years before marriage and be married two years before kids and have at least a couple, you’re talking about a deadline of 34 before even considering the time taken to find someone who can still have kids in that timeframe.
I know some will take issue with my suggestion that opting for an age gap relationship is not a feasible option for most. You cry ‘but large age gaps do happen!’ Well, let’s investigate. The most desired age gap from women is in the range of 0-5 years broadly speaking, with it being most prolific in the 1-4 years range. So, no, not a big lag from the female fertility window!
But what about women who we do see with large age gaps? Women who consistently go for large age gaps do exist, but they are a minority. That’s a very small pool to which you’re restricting yourself if you delay as a guy. Moreover, other guys are trying the same - that’s a lot of competition. Doubly moreover, young women who are exclusively looking for large age gaps are an even smaller minority - so, with most of those young women, you will be competing for a minority of young women with both other middle aged guys and young men.
There is something else to say about attraction. Most women find divorced or married middle aged men more attractive than bachelor middle aged men. Delaying commitment is not a good strategy for you, even if you would be fine with having a family when middle aged. You are unlikely to compete well against middle aged men who are reentering the dating market.
‘But,’ you query, ‘is the pool of young women who are open to dating with large age gaps as small as claimed?’ We have all seen young women in their twenties and even late teens hook up with guys in their 30s (and sometimes older) - it’s reasonably commonplace. Okay, sure. But what proportion of them go on to have relationships with these guys? It does happen, but it’s much rarer. I would suggest it’s because bachelor type guys in their 30s might be attractive for a time with their appearance of maturity and life experience, but the fact that they have had no serious commitment by their 30s is considered a warning sign to many women in their 20s when they consider whether a guy is relationship material. So, many remain single or get into relationships with guys closer in age who are more put together for their age.
The TLDR is that being a bachelor type in your 30s and 40s is not a great strategy for having a family. You (if you are a young man) cannot afford to postpone.
PS Although my hyperlinks in support of my claims go to news articles, all of them are in turn using the results of published research papers, including from those in the top of their subfield of research like David Buss and Shanna Swan.
FWIW tye sperm count decline thing is wrong; there’s been no change in sperm count
All great points. Regarding your "divorced dads are more appealing" point:
This is slightly complicated by the fact that marriage is culturally a bad deal for exactly the men who are most appealing re age gaps - ie men with good careers and / or wealth. A lot of men in that situation don't want to risk losing half their stuff in an environment where prenups are frequently invalidated for bad reasons (if they have a good lawyer, gross inequality - totally subjective, changed circumstances - again subjective, or because you left out something dumb like a 401k account from 3 jobs ago), where the "base failure" rate is around 50%, and where 70% of divorces are initiated by women.
And on the other end, men who have been divorced once are substantially more likely than baseline to get divorced again, so should be LESS appealing to women (although many people are unaware of this fact).
I have a post coming out later today with some interesting data that argues that age gap relationships are probably a good idea both individually and societally, even though frequently condemned by women (but this is strictly a "publicly condemn, but remain open yourself" sort of deal, as 39% of women have dated with an age gap of at least 10 years before).
I'll link a preview link to the draft here if you're interested: https://performativebafflement.substack.com/p/2efb9a25-fe59-490f-8ef8-b6ae70f82dbe